JD Straight Up - 21Jul25 - Up and to the Right
- jodydrulard
- Jul 21, 2025
- 3 min read
Up and to the Right
Drulard Family Capital Fund
Fortnightly Macro View
JD Straight Up:
S&P 500 at 6332 – up 1% from 6250 two weeks ago - another all time high
VIX at 16 – down 11% from 18 two weeks ago
10yr Treasury yielding 4.36% (flat from 4.37% two weeks ago)
Agg (US Aggregate Bond Index) at 98.46 – flat from 98.26 two weeks ago
Gold at 3408 per oz (up 3% from 3326 two weeks ago)
Crude Oil (WTI) at 67 per barrel (flat from 67 two weeks ago)
Bitcoin at 118k (up 9% from 108k two weeks ago)
JPM shares at 293 (down 1% from 294 two weeks ago)
Deutsche Bank shares at 30.41 (up 5% from 29.01 two weeks ago)
Truist shares at 45.19 (down 1% from 45.49 two weeks ago)
Blackstone shares at 168.36 (up 10% from 153.83 two weeks ago)
Magnificent 7 Index at 363 (up 5% from 347 two weeks ago)
US unemployment: at 221,000 in latest claims – down 5% from 233,000 two weeks ago
EUR at 1.17 USD (flat from 1.17 two weeks ago)
GBP at 1.35 USD (down 1% from 1.36 two weeks ago)
Macro Environment
Inflation continues at 2.7% in the US and 2.0% in the EU. The US budget deficit is 6% of GDP while US debt is at 122% of GDP. EU budget deficit is 3% of GDP while EU debt is at 88% of GDP.
US GDP is expected to grow 2% in 2025 while EU is squeezing out 1% growth. Wars continue to be pursued by Russia and Israel. US trade negotiations and tariff imposition continues across all major trading partners. Trade barriers are expected to slow growth and increase inflation. US administration is attempting to pressure or potentially reconfigure the US central bank.
Macro View
Gold, financials, tech, crypto all testing all time highs concurrently.
Uncertainty around trade negotiations, policy changes, central bank autonomy and resulting investment, growth and monetary policy have shown little impact on asset prices. Investors continue to allocate across all asset classes and markets continue climbing through new highs.
Relevance
Typically, periods of widespread uncertainty bring increased volatility, yet we have had months of record low volatility. It is also unusual to see defensive assets and speculative assets all climbing concurrently and consistently, but everything is rallying together. Further, US employment data (assuming you can trust it and barring any massive restatements or recalibrations) continues to show strength and the persistence of historically low levels of unemployment near the 4% level.
Head Scratchers
1 - What percentage of US citizens or investors find the Trump Media and Truth Social juggernaut to be one or more of the following:
amazing
insane
fraudulent
the future
The latest press release from the company ought to help inform that question. The company trades under the ticker DJT so denying any direct connection to the US president (that would normally go through huge efforts to avoid any potential conflict or even perception of one) is unnecessary.
The press release begins with "...DJT, operator of the social media platform Truth Social, the streaming platform Truth+, and the fintech brand Truth.FI, announced today that the company has accumulated approximately $2billion in bitcoin and bitcoin-related securities as part of its previously announced bitcoin treasury strategy."
It goes on to explain that it is also active in acquiring options on bitcoin and other crypto assets.
It closes by referencing protection against discrimination by financial institutions and the intention to launch a utility token across Truth Social.
This is of course transpiring in the confines of the world's greatest democratic experiment in history - the US.
Drulard Family Capital Fund
Drulard Family Charitable Fund
#21 - 21Jul25
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